TD Economics has adjusted its predictions for home sales and prices in 2026, anticipating a decline rather than an increase due to lackluster performance in the last two quarters. The forecast now projects a 1.8% year-over-year drop in sales and a marginal 0.3% decrease in national home prices. Initially, TD had foreseen a 9.3% rise in home sales and a 4.1% increase in average prices for the year.
Economist Rishi Sondhi noted that housing activity is expected to take most of the year to bounce back from first-quarter setbacks. Factors such as a sluggish economy, uncertainty, and cost-of-living pressures are limiting sales. Severe weather in Central and Atlantic Canada impacted early-year activity, while B.C. also experienced weakness despite milder conditions.
Ontario and B.C. received significant downgrades in both sales and prices following notable declines in the first quarter. Affordability challenges are deterring potential buyers in these provinces, with many waiting for the market to stabilize. TD’s earlier projections of a 13% increase in Ontario home sales and a 15.1% rise in B.C. have been revised to show a 3.2% decrease in Ontario transactions and a 0.2% dip in B.C. activity.
The report anticipates a 2027 rebound in Canadian home sales driven by improved economic conditions, potentially boosting average prices. TD’s current outlook predicts a 9.6% year-over-year increase in home sales for 2027, with prices expected to rise by 2.7%. Sondhi highlighted that uncertainties, such as CUSMA negotiations and geopolitical tensions, could impact the housing market and broader economy.