Edmonton’s status as one of Canada’s most budget-friendly cities may face challenges this year, as per the economic forecast for 2026 by the Conference Board of Canada. The report “Major City Insights: Edmonton—January 2026” indicates a slowdown in population growth following a recent surge in the city.
Rising housing prices and sluggish oil prices have constrained Edmonton’s manufacturing sector, impacting the city’s existing home market significantly. Richard Forbes, the principal economist at the Conference Board of Canada, highlighted that the near future may be tumultuous.
The report points out that reduced immigration targets by the federal government and escalating local housing costs are diminishing Edmonton’s attractiveness in terms of residential affordability for Canadians. The city experienced a notable population increase in 2023 and 2024, with a net influx of over 46,500 individuals.
The report estimates a decline in net immigration to about 8,900 newcomers in 2025, with a further drop to approximately 5,500 in 2026. However, a rebound is anticipated with more than 10,500 net arrivals in 2027, and around 19,000 individuals between 2028 and 2030.
Regarding the job market, despite the influx of newcomers in 2023 and 2024, not all could secure employment, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to about eight percent in 2025, up from 5.9 percent in 2022. The Conference Board of Canada projects the unemployment rate to hover around 7.9 percent in 2026.
The services sector is expected to drive job growth this year, with projections indicating the addition of 6,800 new jobs in retail trade and an additional 5,200 positions in healthcare, offsetting losses in the goods sector.
In terms of the housing market, Edmonton maintains its affordability compared to national standards, although the advantage has been eroded by previous robust price growth. Residential property sales in the greater Edmonton area declined by 20 percent in December 2025 compared to the previous month and by 7.5 percent compared to December 2024.
In December 2025, the average selling price for all types of residential properties rose by 1.8 percent from the previous month to $454,981, which is 4.7 percent higher than in December 2024.
City councillor Reed Clarke from Ward Nagota Isga expressed optimism about the slight slowdown in population growth, noting that it provides an opportunity to address various infrastructure needs to accommodate the city’s growth. The upcoming budget review by the newly elected city council will focus on addressing infrastructure requirements to keep pace with the population growth.
Despite uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs affecting oil prices, the economic outlook appears positive for the coming years, with anticipated growth rates of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 3.3 percent in 2027. The manufacturing sector in Edmonton, predominantly comprising petroleum refineries, experienced declines in output in recent years but is expected to see improved performance ahead.