Prime Minister Mark Carney highlights the significant role of Canada in driving American economic growth by citing the export of natural gas to the U.S. in a recent speech. This raises the question of the potential consequences if Canada were to cease sending these shipments south of the border.
Despite the ongoing trade tensions between Canada and the U.S., energy products like oil and natural gas have not been utilized as bargaining chips. The discussion around this tactic has sparked differing opinions, with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith consistently against it and Ontario’s Doug Ford advocating for keeping all options open.
Carney emphasized the importance of Canada in the U.S. energy market by stating that Canada supplies 99% of their natural gas imports, 85% of electricity imports, and 60% of crude oil imports. This heavy reliance is evident in the U.S.’s import numbers from Canada, with an average of 8.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Dulles Wang, the director of Americas gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, estimates that Canadian natural gas supplies only make up around five percent of U.S. consumption. This distribution occurs through an extensive network of natural gas pipelines that crisscross the Canada-U.S. border, servicing various markets in both countries.
Enbridge, headquartered in Calgary, stands as the largest natural gas provider in North America. The company solidified its position by finalizing a series of deals worth $19 billion to acquire three U.S. utilities in 2024.
Ceasing natural gas shipments to the U.S. would have significant repercussions for Canada’s energy industry, leading to an oversupply situation and potential price crashes. This move would not benefit either country, emphasizing the need for Canada to explore alternative markets for its energy exports beyond the U.S.
Efforts are underway to diversify Canada’s energy export destinations, with the LNG Canada facility in Kitimat, B.C., already sending shipments to Asian markets. The government’s Major Projects Office is supporting the expansion of these projects to reduce dependence on the U.S. market and ensure long-term sustainability for Canada’s energy sector.