The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has adjusted its 2026 home sales forecast downward for the third time this year. September data indicates a decline in home sales nationwide. Initially projecting a slight increase in home sales for 2026, CREA now anticipates a 5.2% decrease in home transactions compared to the previous year. This revision follows earlier adjustments made in April and July.
The surge in oil prices since spring has influenced bond yields and subsequently fixed mortgage rates, impacting the housing market, according to CREA. While there was a modest uptick in monthly activity over the summer, CREA’s senior economist, Shaun Cathcart, warns that rising oil prices and concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada to combat inflation are likely to deter more prospective homebuyers in the final months of the year.
Royal LePage, a real estate company, echoes similar sentiments from potential homebuyers. President and CEO Phil Soper notes that the autumn housing market has been softer than expected, as buyers remain cautious amid global uncertainties, influenced by the uncertain messaging from Washington.
In September, home sales saw a decline of 2.3% compared to August and 7.7% compared to the same period last year. New property listings also decreased by 1.8% on a monthly basis, continuing a trend that began in September 2025. The average national home price stood at $666,538, marking a 1.6% decrease from the previous year.
Regional markets, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, showed weakness in September. Conversely, markets in the Prairies, Quebec, and the East Coast, which had been robust for a while, are also starting to cool down. Despite the current forecast downgrade, CREA anticipates a rebound in home sales next year, with a projected increase of 4.4% in 2027. This outlook is based on the assumption of minimal rate adjustments by the Bank of Canada and enhanced borrower certainty regarding lending rates.