Canada’s major banks provided positive economic outlooks on Thursday, in contrast to the concerns expressed by many small businesses amidst the ongoing trade tensions with the U.S.
Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC announced their financial results before the Toronto Stock Exchange opened. Combined, these three banking giants hold assets totaling up to $6 trillion on their balance sheets. With extensive portfolios covering mortgages, loans, and client networks across Canada and the U.S., they have a unique perspective to assess the impact of tariffs.
RBC CEO Dave McKay expressed optimism about the Canadian economy’s resilience, citing improvements in employment and GDP in Q2. He highlighted that despite ongoing trade uncertainties with the U.S., the average effective tariff rate remains low, and the majority of exports are duty-free.
Investment Opportunities on the Rise
TD Bank CEO Raymond Chun mentioned a potential “super cycle” of investments in Canada, driven by government spending in infrastructure and national defense sectors. With over $1 trillion in approved projects until 2035, Chun emphasized the positive outlook for investment opportunities in Canada.
CIBC CEO Harry Culham expressed confidence in the latter half of 2026, acknowledging the evolving trade environment without speculating on its future. CIBC’s chief risk officer, Frank Guse, emphasized the bank’s monitoring of Canada’s labor market for any signs of weakness.
According to a recent study by Oxford Economics for the Canadian American Business Council, over 100,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) is eliminated. BMO Capital Markets predicted that the latest U.S. tariffs could reduce Canadian growth by half a percentage point, primarily affecting business confidence and investment.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer tells CBC chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton that Canada wanted ‘too much’ from the U.S. in trade negotiations. In the Canadian exclusive interview — the first one-on-one the Trump administration has done with Canadian media since the trade dispute entered this new phase — Greer denies the Canadian assertion that the U.S. added last-minute conditions to the Canada-U.S. draft deal that fell apart.
National Bank’s CEO Laurent Ferreira also praised Canada’s economic resilience and the government’s investment plans and aid measures to support businesses affected by the trade war. He highlighted positive developments in sectors like energy, power infrastructure, and the recent icebreaker ship contract announcement in Quebec.
The CEO of Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank separately mentioned that they view the Canada-U.S. trade war as manageable. Canadian bank stocks on the Toronto Stock Exchange continue to perform well, with the BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF increasing by nearly 50% over the past year.
Tag: rewrite-pending