Custom officials, business leaders, and legal experts are preparing for a pivotal Supreme Court decision regarding the legality of the extensive global tariffs implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump. An estimated $150 billion in refunds from the U.S. government could be at stake for importers who have already paid duties if the tariffs are deemed unlawful.
There is growing anticipation that the Supreme Court may rule against the tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. During the court arguments in November, both conservative and liberal justices expressed doubts about the president’s authority to impose such duties under this law.
While it is expected that the court will announce its rulings on Friday, the specific cases to be addressed have not been disclosed, as is customary. Some companies are preparing for potential challenges in reclaiming refunds if the tariffs are invalidated, with concerns that the process may not be straightforward due to the government’s reluctance to return money.
President Trump is the first to utilize the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to enforce tariffs, a law historically reserved for imposing sanctions on U.S. adversaries or freezing their assets. The tariffs imposed under this act have resulted in an estimated $133.5 billion in collections between February 4 and December 14, 2025. The total amount collected is expected to approach $150 billion based on the daily collection rates during the specified period.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expressed confidence in the Supreme Court upholding Trump’s tariffs, while U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has suggested that any lost revenues could potentially be compensated through new tariffs authorized by alternative legal frameworks if refunds are required. The imposition of tariffs by Trump under the IEEPA occurred through reciprocal measures on goods from various trading partners and targeted countries like China, Canada, and Mexico for reasons such as the trafficking of illicit drugs.
Companies are eager to secure refunds if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, but the outcome remains uncertain. The refund process is expected to hinge on the court’s guidance or potential referral to a lower court for resolution. Importers are racing against time as the deadline for corrections to imports before they are “liquidated” and become ineligible for refunds has passed for some goods affected by the tariffs.
Several companies, including Costco, have taken preemptive legal action to safeguard their refund rights, highlighting the necessity for judicial intervention to ensure reimbursement of unlawfully collected tariffs if the duties are deemed invalid. Despite the anticipation for refunds, some business leaders are skeptical about receiving timely payments and anticipate bureaucratic obstacles in the process.
Trade experts advise companies to maintain accurate records and act promptly to facilitate potential refund claims. The recent technical changes by CBP signaling a shift to electronic distribution of tariff refunds have raised hopes for a streamlined process. However, uncertainties persist on how the agency will handle a ruling against Trump’s tariffs, if it comes to that.