U.S. President Donald Trump’s intentions in Venezuela revolve around its oil resources, with the recent arrest of President Nicolás Maduro drawing global attention to the White House’s next steps in the region. To grasp the significance of Venezuela’s oil reserves, here are six graphs that highlight their scale and importance.
Oil production in Venezuela has been on a downward trend since the mid-2000s, hitting a low point in 2020 due to stricter U.S. sanctions and reduced demand caused by the pandemic. Although there have been slight recoveries in oil production since then, the country’s economic well-being is intricately linked to its oil sales. The economic downturn, with a contraction of around 30% in 2020, was primarily attributed to decades of mismanagement, insufficient investment, and U.S. sanctions.
Despite facing challenges in production, Venezuela boasts vast oil reserves, potentially surpassing those of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Canada. Restoring production to its 1990s peak would require an estimated $180 billion investment over ten years. However, potential investors must navigate issues such as political instability, aging infrastructure, and currently low oil prices.
Oil prices have been in decline, hovering above $60 per barrel for an extended period. Expectations that Venezuelan oil might flood the already saturated market could further drive down prices. President Trump recently revealed plans for Venezuela to supply 30 to 50 million barrels of oil, to be sold at market value, as part of a strategy to selectively lift sanctions and facilitate oil shipments worldwide.
The majority of Venezuela’s oil exports are directed towards China, a key ally of the Maduro government and a significant investor in the country. Venezuela is working to repay a substantial debt to China through oil exports. In response to Maduro’s capture, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the U.S.’s commitment to preventing the Western Hemisphere from becoming a hub for adversaries, likely alluding to China.
Although the U.S. previously purchased a considerable amount of Venezuelan oil, accounting for around 23% in 2023, the country’s share has declined in recent years. Trade data shows that no Venezuelan oil reached U.S. shores in 2020 and 2021, with small quantities being imported in 2023 and 2024.